Elections Underway in the Netherlands as Surveys Point to Potential Second Victory for Firebrand Leader Geert Wilders

Voting has commenced for general elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data indicating that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again emerge victorious, though analysts suggest the party stands little chance of joining the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

The PVV, which previously achieved a shock first-place finish and formed a multi-party all-conservative coalition that collapsed within a year, is currently marginally ahead in the polls and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-seat parliament.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's support has declined since 2023, when it secured 37 seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out forming a government with Wilders, who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in June amid a dispute concerning his controversial anti-refugee plans.

Major Parties and Forecasts

At the end of a campaign focused on topics such as migration, healthcare costs, and the country's severe housing shortage, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, projected to win between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive D66, projected to boost its representation by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is expected to more than double its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all forecast to lose seats, with several facing heavy losses.

Voting Process and Political Division

In the proportional Dutch system, securing just less than one percent of the vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Among the 27 parties contesting the election – which include parties for the over-50s, youth parties, for animals, basic income advocates, and sports parties – up to 16 could enter the legislature.

This high degree of fragmentation ensures that no single party is expected to secure a majority, and Holland has been ruled by coalitions – typically composed of four parties in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the his party ends up as the biggest group yet is excluded from power. However, critics and analysts say that winning the most seats does not assure a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

Although the final outcome is uncertain and coalition talks could take several months, political observers indicate that after the most extreme government in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a inclusive alliance led by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, opened at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable exit poll is anticipated shortly after the polls close.

After the vote, an official negotiator will explore possible coalitions that could secure enough support in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must face a vote of confidence in the house before assuming power.